Agricultural prices and commodity market analysis

By: Ferris, John NMaterial type: TextTextPublication details: East Lansing, Mich. : Michigan State University Press, ©2005Description: xviii, 361 p. : illustrationsISBN: 0870137514 ; 9780870137518Subject(s): Commodity exchanges -- United States | Agricultural prices -- United States -- Forecasting | Farm produce -- United States -- Marketing | Agricultural prices -- Forecasting | Commodity exchanges | Farm produce -- Marketing | United StatesDDC classification: 332.6441
Contents:
1. Introduction -- 2. Theoretical concepts of demand and supply -- 3. Measuring demand for domestic consumption -- 4. Measuring demands for storage, speculation, and exports -- 5. Measuring price spreads and derived demand for agricultural products and inputs -- 6. Measuring farm supply -- 7. Recursive and simultaneous supply-demand models -- 8. Building econometric/simulation models -- 9. Forecast evaluation -- 10. Stochastic modeling -- 11. Generating long-term projections and forecasts -- 12. Spatial commodity analysis and trade -- 13. Application of models to long-range planning and policy analysis -- 14. Seasonals -- 15. Commodity futures and options markets -- 16. Forward pricing with futures and options -- 17. Technical analysis -- 18. Time series models -- 19. Sources of agricultural data and market analysis.
Summary: This book features the application of economic theory to agriculture and the food industry, using quantitative tools. The blend of theory and application is unique in detailing how demand and supply can be measured and how econometric simulation models may be constructed and evaluated. The volume focuses on forecasting and generating long-term projections as well as discussing the relatively unexplored area of stochastic modeling, which is critical in handling crop yield variability. Other topics covered in the text include agricultural policy analysis and futures/options markets. The role of time series models in improving structural equations and forecasting techniques provides a capstone for this book.
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Included Index.

1. Introduction --
2. Theoretical concepts of demand and supply --
3. Measuring demand for domestic consumption --
4. Measuring demands for storage, speculation, and exports --
5. Measuring price spreads and derived demand for agricultural products and inputs --
6. Measuring farm supply --
7. Recursive and simultaneous supply-demand models --
8. Building econometric/simulation models --
9. Forecast evaluation --
10. Stochastic modeling --
11. Generating long-term projections and forecasts --
12. Spatial commodity analysis and trade --
13. Application of models to long-range planning and policy analysis --
14. Seasonals --
15. Commodity futures and options markets --
16. Forward pricing with futures and options --
17. Technical analysis --
18. Time series models --
19. Sources of agricultural data and market analysis.

This book features the application of economic theory to agriculture and the food industry, using quantitative tools. The blend of theory and application is unique in detailing how demand and supply can be measured and how econometric simulation models may be constructed and evaluated. The volume focuses on forecasting and generating long-term projections as well as discussing the relatively unexplored area of stochastic modeling, which is critical in handling crop yield variability. Other topics covered in the text include agricultural policy analysis and futures/options markets. The role of time series models in improving structural equations and forecasting techniques provides a capstone for this book.

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