000			02834cam a2200217 a 4500
020			_a9780340762387
020			_a0340762381
082	0	0	_a658.40355 _bNAS
100	1		_aNash, John C.,
245	1	0	_aPractical forecasting for managers /
260			_aLondon : _bArnold ; _aNew York : _bOxford University Press, _c2001.
300			_axvi, 296 p. : _billustrations ;
505			_aCh. 1. Why forecast? -- Ch. 2. Planning the forecasting task -- Ch. 3. Measuring how well forecasting goals are met. Part 1 -- Ch. 4. Data search, gathering, documentation and management -- Ch. 5. Qualitative forecasting: long-term -- Ch. 6. Semi-quantitative methods -- Ch. 7. Forecasting, Risk, and Strategic Management -- Ch. 8. Measuring how well forecasting goals are met. Part 2 -- Ch. 9. Preliminary data analysis for forecasting -- Ch. 10. The preliminary forecast: concepts and examples -- Ch. 11. A strategy for performing forecasting data analysis -- Ch. 12. Forecasting trend and season I: Multiple regression -- Ch. 13. Forecasting trend and season II: Smoothing methods -- Ch. 14. Forecasting trend and season III: Time series decomposition -- Ch. 15. ARIMA and related models for forecasting -- Ch. 16. Using ARIMA models: other issues and examples -- Ch. 17. Comparing and combining forecasts -- Ch. 18. Variations on the theme of seasonal adjustment -- Ch. 19. Mixed and extended models -- Ch. 20. Nonlinear regression modelling -- Ch. 21. Artificial neural networks -- Ch. 22. Building the forecast report.
520			_aThe key emphasis of this book is on the practical application of ideas, focusing on straightforward ideas that can be understood, explained, and put into action. More advanced methods are covered, but they are treated in the general context of forecasting and are easily understood and useable. Topics of stategic interest, such as long-term and qualitative forecasting for use in planning new products and services, as well as tactical and short-term quantitiative forecasting are presented in a clear and logical style. Many small tools and tricks to ease the job of actually preparing forecasts, expecially concerning the use of computers, are included and calculations are illustrated using spreadsheet software and a statistical package that is available on the internet. In making decisions, we all make forecasts. We may not think that we are forecasting, but our choices will be directed by our anticipation of results of our actions or omissions. This book aims to help managers improve their forecasting skills.
650		0	_aBusiness forecasting.
650		0	_aManagement.
700	1		_aNash, Mary M.
856	4	2	_uhttp://www.loc.gov/catdir/enhancements/fy0637/2002265590-d.html
856	4	1	_uhttp://www.loc.gov/catdir/enhancements/fy0637/2002265590-t.html
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